Toronto condo market nosedives into historic lows

Key Takeaways:

• Condo sales in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA) plummeted to their lowest levels in decades — down 62% year-over-year and 88% below the 10-year average. Toronto proper saw its lowest quarterly new condo sales since 1990, signaling a deep demand crisis.
• Unsold condo inventory reached a record-high 23,918 units — 78 months of supply, far exceeding the balanced market threshold (10–12 months). Completed but unsold units more than doubled year-over-year, and supply is expected to keep rising, adding pressure on prices and developer margins
• Only two projects launched in Q1-2025, and 28 projects (5,734 units) have been shelved or altered since 2024. Sales relied heavily on incentives, and average selling prices dropped 7% year-over-year to $1,151 psf. The gap between buyer expectations and developer costs continues to widen, stalling new construction starts and pushing some projects into receivership.

The Whole Story:

Toronto is in the midst of a historic condo market decline, data shows.

Urbanation Inc., a condominum information and analysis provider since 1981, has released its Q1-2025 Condominium Market Survey results and it’s not pretty.

The Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA) new condo apartment market reported a total of 533 sales in Q1-2025, declining 62% year-over-year and 88% below the 10-year average to reach the lowest quarterly total since 1995. The 215 new condo sales in the City of Toronto in Q1 fell to its lowest level since 1990.

“The new condo market is currently working through its most challenging period to date, which has become further impacted by the uncertainty and cost escalations caused by the trade conflict with the U.S. With the Toronto region relying on condos for more than one-half of its total housing development, the magnitude of this slowdown will result in severe supply repercussions,” said Shaun Hildebrand, President of Urbanation.

Only two projects launched for presales in Q1-2025 totaling 275 units. Since the beginning of 2024, 28 presale projects totaling 5,734 units were either put on hold, cancelled, placed in receivership, or converted to purpose-built rental, including four projects totaling 1,042 units in Q1-2025.

Unsold new condominium inventory totaled 23,918 units, increasing 6% from a year ago and 58% higher than the 10-year average. Unsold inventory was equal to 78 months of supply based on the pace of sales averaged over the last 12 months, a record-high that was approximately seven times greater than a balanced level of 10-12 months of supply.

Unsold inventory was made of up 10,934 unsold units in pre-construction projects, 11,073 unsold units in under construction projects, and 1,911 unsold units of standing inventory in completed projects. The number of completed and unsold units more than doubled compared to a year ago to reach its highest level since Q1-1993. Completed and unsold inventory is expected to continue rising this year as an additional 2,411 unsold units are currently scheduled to be completed by the end of 2025. This is in addition to any presold units that ultimately fail to close.

Of the new condo sales that occurred in Q1-2025, selling prices averaged $1,151 psf, down 7% from a year ago when units were selling for an average of $1,232 psf. Furthermore, of the projects generating sales activity, incentives were heavily employed, including significant cash back credits at closing, rental guarantees, and extended deposit payment schedules. Overall, asking prices for unsold inventory averaged $1,339 psf, a 2% decline from a year ago. This illustrates the large gap between prices that buyers demand versus prices that most developers need to sell for in order to build.

A total of 497 condominium units started construction in the GTHA during Q1-2025, dropping 79% from a year ago and 88% below the 10-year average to reach its lowest quarterly total since 1996. While condo completions decreased 16% from the record high last year to 9,495 units in Q1-2025, they remained 67% higher than the 10-year average. Condo completions are projected to total 31,396 units in 2025, surpassing last year’s record of 29,671 units, before falling to 17,487 units in 2026. As of Q1-2025, there were 69,042 condo units under construction in the GTHA, a decline of one-third over the past two years.