CMHC: Latest housing starts trending upward

Key Takeaways:

• The monthly SAAR of housing starts rose 14% m/m to 279,234 units in September, while the six-month trend increased 4.1% to 277,147, signalling firmer near-term supply despite volatility.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) starts in centres ≥10,000 pop. were up 19% y/y to 22,375 in September; year-to-date urban starts reached 178,033 (+5%) versus the same period in 2024.
• Toronto and Montréal accounted for over a quarter of national monthly starts, each surging on apartment/rental projects.

The Whole Story:

Canada’s housing starts trend rose 4.1% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 277,147 units, as gains in Ontario, Quebec and the Prairies lifted national totals, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said.

CMHC’s trend is a six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of total starts, used to smooth monthly swings. The standalone monthly SAAR climbed 14% to 279,234 units from 244,543 in August, signalling a stronger pace of new construction entering the fall.

On an unadjusted basis, actual housing starts in urban centres of 10,000 people or more increased 19% year over year, to 22,375 units in September from 18,806 a year earlier. Year to date, urban starts reached 178,033 units, up 5% from the same period in 2024.

“The six-month trend in housing starts was pushed higher in September, driven by significantly higher monthly starts in Ontario, Québec, and the Prairie provinces,” said Tania Bourassa-Ochoa, CMHC’s deputy chief economist. “Notably, Montréal and Toronto were responsible for more than a quarter of the total monthly starts nationally, primarily due to increased rental apartments starts. While these results indicate some resilience, it is worth noting that current housing starts levels are generally reflective of decisions made months or even years ago when investor confidence was higher than it is today.”

The agency said large multi-unit projects continued to drive results. Among the three largest cities, Montréal and Toronto posted sharp year-over-year increases in actual starts—up 135% and 112%, respectively—on higher apartment activity. Vancouver recorded a 1% decrease in September.

Rural activity also contributed: the rural SAAR was estimated at 24,889 units. CMHC noted it uses the trend measure alongside the monthly SAAR to give a clearer picture of near-term supply, since the multi-unit segment can vary widely from month to month.

Provincially, September’s SAAR data showed broad strength outside British Columbia. Ontario’s total SAAR rose 58% from August to 85,801 units, led by a surge in multi-unit starts. Quebec increased 7% to 49,245. In the Prairies, Alberta advanced 16% to 53,111, while Saskatchewan nearly doubled to 8,288. Manitoba climbed 22% to 11,059. British Columbia fell 22% to 34,162 as multi-unit activity cooled.

City-level SAAR figures reflected the same pattern. Toronto jumped 72% month over month to 43,382 units. Montréal rose 52% to 30,939. Vancouver declined 22% to 23,267.

Longer-run counts show uneven momentum across regions this year. Through the first nine months, Quebec’s urban starts rose 31% to 37,782 units. The Prairies were up 23% to 50,239, with Alberta leading. British Columbia was down 2% to 31,586. Ontario trailed last year’s pace, with urban starts down 18% to 46,111.

CMHC said the latest results point to some resilience in new housing supply but cautioned that today’s starts reflect earlier investment decisions and financing conditions. The agency publishes housing starts data on the 11th business day each month and plans to release October figures on Nov. 18 at 8:15 a.m. ET.

CMHC’s Starts and Completions Survey tracks new residential construction across Canada. The data inform governments, builders and lenders about near-term supply and market absorption.