Report: 55% of Metro Vancouver homes to be condos by 2051

Key Takeaways:

• Apartments are projected to make up 55% of Metro Vancouver homes by 2051, up from 46% in 2024, while single-detached homes drop to 14%.
• The region forecasts about 1.7 million dwelling units by 2051, adding roughly 20,500 net new homes per year under the medium-growth scenario.
• Growth is expected to be driven largely by apartments (about two-thirds of net new units), reflecting policy to concentrate housing in compact, transit-served areas.

The Whole Story:

Metro Vancouver says apartments are on track to make up the majority of homes in the region by 2051 as the housing stock shifts away from single-detached units.

A dwelling-unit projections update presented to the Regional Planning Committee on Nov. 6 estimates apartments will account for more than half of all homes by mid-century, rising to 55% from 46% in 2024. By contrast, single-detached houses are projected to fall to 14% of the total by 2051.

Under the medium-growth scenario, the region is forecast to reach about 1.7 million dwelling units by 2051. That implies an average of roughly 20,500 net new homes added each year from 2024 to 2051.

Apartments are expected to drive most of the growth, representing about two-thirds of net new units over the period. The report says this aligns with recent trends in housing starts and completions, and reflects policy direction to add more homes in compact, transit-served locations.

Townhouses and other ground-oriented multifamily units are projected to make up a stable share of the market, while single-detached construction continues to decline as available land tightens and municipalities focus growth in established urban centres.

The outlook is based on updated population forecasts that incorporate lower federal immigration targets and a recent decline in non-permanent residents. Staff note the figures could shift as provincial housing legislation, municipal targets and infrastructure investments are implemented.

The committee-level update will inform ongoing regional planning work, including efforts to align growth with transit expansion, utilities and community services through 2051.